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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.